The Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) infers
values of the parameters controlling the function of a process model of the
terrestrial biosphere using various observations. An obvious restriction of
this approach is the limitation by the dynamics of the underlying process model.
Careful study of the model-data mismatch and analysis of residuals can alert us
to the presence of systematic errors which then candidate processes to extend the
terrestrial biosphere model and the assimilation system. In a previous study, Rayner et al. [2005] noticed systematic underestimate of
carbon release events in the tropics. The most likely explanation for this was
the absence of any model of biomass burning in the biosphere model used in that
study. Here, we extend CCDAS to infer the spatial and temporal patterns of
biomass burning in the period 1979-1999. In a first attempt we include some
flux components to account for missing processes. This so-called weak
constraint form avoids biasing the inferences since the underlying model is no
longer forced to match data without necessary processes. Also the magnitudes of
the extra inferred fluxes quantify the missing processes.
Author: M. Scholze, P. Rayner, W. Knorr, T. Kaminski, et al (marko dot scholze at bris dot ac dot uk)
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