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 Atmospheric CO2, Carbon Isotopes, the Sun, and Climate Change over the Last Mill

Carbon Cycle Response to Climate ChangeBy Fortunat Joos

The records of atmospheric CO2 and of NH surface temperature covering the past millennium hold information on the strength of the sensitivity of the global carbon cycle to climate changes. This sensitivity is defined as the change in atmospheric CO2 in response to a given change in NH temperature in units of ppm K-1. The magnitude of the sensitivity is estimated for modest (< 1 K) temperature variations from simulations with the Bern Carbon Cycle Climate model driven with solar and volcanic forcing over the last millennium and from simulations with the range of C4MIP models over the industrial periods. The model results are broadly compatible with the data-deduced range.

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Re: Atmospheric CO2, Carbon Isotopes, the Sun, and Climate Change over the Last Mill (Score 1)
by Harro.Meijer on Thursday, September 29 @ 23:11:53 MDT
(User Info)http://www.rug.nl/cio
The evidence, or at least firm indication, that you present that solar influence on the recent "little ice age" climate change is minimal, is very interesting. As you might be aware of, in paleo-ecological circles this solar influence is heavily debated. There is, namely, overwhelming circumstantial evidence that solar forcing - through an unknown mechanism - plays an important role in a number of holocene climate changes, as e.g. peat bogs all over Europe register a coincidence of sharp climate change and sharp changes in 14C. I give you here a number of references to work by van Geel and others (using the Groningen AMS facility) that describe these coincidences, both in the little ice age, and around 800 BC. It would be interesting to confront these authors with your model outcome; furthermore it would be interesting to see whether you could tackle the 800 BC event with your model. Some references by van Geel et al, for your consideration: B. van Geel, O.M. Raspopov, H. Renssen, J. van der Plicht,V.A. Dergachev, and H.A.J. Meijer, The role of solar forcing upon climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 18, 331-338 (1999). B. van Geel, J. van der Plicht, M.R. Kilian, E.R. Klaver, J.H.M. Kouwenberg,, H. Renssen, I. Reynaud-Farrera, and H.T. Waterbolk, The sharp rise of D14C ca. 800 cal BC: possible causes, related climatic connections and the impact on human environments. In: Proceedings, 16th International Radiocarbon Conference, W.G. Mook and J. van der Plicht (eds.). Radiocarbon 40 (1), 535-550 (1998). B. van Geel, H. Renssen, and J. van der Plicht, Paleo-evidence for solar forcing of climate change. Proc. of 3rd Workshop of the European Lake Drilling Programme ELDP on Mediterranean Lacustrine Records, 14-18 October 1998. Terra Nostra 6, 40-45 (1998). H. Renssen, B. van Geel, J. van der Plicht, M. Magny, Reduced solar activity as a trigger for the start of the Younger Dryas? Quaternary International 68-71, 373-383 (2000). O. Raspopov, O. Shumilov, V. Kochegura, V. Dergachev, B. van Geel, J. van der Plicht, H. Renssen, J. and Maley, Dendrochronological and other proxy evidence for climatic colling around 2700 BP and its heliogeophysical forcing. In: Proceedings of the International Conference "Dendrochrology and Environmental trends. Stravinskiene, V. and Juknys R. (eds.), Kaunas, Lithuania, 17-21 June 1998. 113-123 (2000). O.M.Raspopov, O.I.Shumilov, V.A.Dergachev, B.van Geel, N.A.Morner, J.van der Plicht and H.Renssen, Abrupt climatic change around 2700-2800 years BP as an example of existence of 2400 year periodicity in solar activity and solar variability. Proceedings, First Solar and Space Weather Euroconference, Tenerife, Spain, 25-29 september 2000, 513-515 (2000). B. Van Geel, H. Renssen, and J. van der Plicht, Evidence from the past: solar forcing of climate change by way of cosmic rays and/or by solar UV? Proceedings Workshop on Ion-Aerosol-Cloud Interactions, Geneva,, ed. J. Kirby, CERN 2001-007, 24-29 (2001). D. Mauquoy, B. van Geel, M. Blaauw, and J. van der Plicht. Evidence from northwest European bogs shows "Little Ice Age" climatic changes driven by variations in solar activity. The Holocene 12 (1) 1-6 (2002). A. Speranza, B. van Geel, and J. van der Plicht. Evidence for solar forcing of climate change at ca. 850 cal BC from a Czech peat sequence. Global and Planetary Change 35, 51-65 (2002). van Geel, B., Raspopov, O.M., van der Plicht, J., Renssen, H., 1998. Solar forcing of abrupt climate change around 850 calendar years BC. in: Natural Catastrophes During Bronze Age Civilisations. Archaeological, Geological, Astronomical and Cultural perspectives. B.J. Peiser, T. Palmer and M.E. Bailey (eds.), BAR International Series 728, Archaeopresse, Oxford, pp. 162-168. M. Mauquoy, B. van Geel, M. Blaauw, J. van der Plicht, and F. Berendse, North-West European bogs show that Little Ice Age climate changes may have been driven by changes in solar activity. Change 59, October-November, 14-16 (2001). D. Mauquoy, B. van

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