 | CLIMATE CHANGE: DESIGNING AN EFFECTIVE RESPONSE |
 by D.G. Victor
Reversing
the atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse
gases will require a radical transformation in the world’s economies. Such changes are difficult to plan and imply
coordination of policies on a scale not yet experienced. Not only is the task difficult, but the
problem of climate change has many attributes that historically are associated
with policy failure—namely, the perception of high immediate costs for
uncertain and highly diffuse future benefits.
This paper explores the historical experience with addressing partially
analogous global challenges. The paper
is pessimistic that societies will have much effect on their emissions
trajectories in the next few decades, implying that substantial amounts of
climate change are likely and the risk of abrupt changes in climate will also
multiply. It is optimistic about the
longer-term—the period from five decades on—when zero carbon technologies can
diffuse into widespread use through the normal turnover of energy
infrastructures.
Link to Abstract
Link to Slides
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