We examine the growth-rate of atmospheric CO2
in 2002 and 2003. Observations show consecutive increases of greater than 2 ppmv
per year for the first time on the Mauna Loa
record. We use a statistical regression to show that increasing anthropogenic emissions
and ENSO activity are unable to
account for the CO2 growth-rates of 1992 and 1993 following the
Pinatubo volcanic eruption, or the anomalously high growth-rate of 2003. Increased
forest fires in the northern hemisphere, consistent with remote-sensing and
carbon monoxide measurements, seem likely to have contributed significantly to
the 2003 anomaly. We hypothesise that the hot and dry Eurasian summer of 2003
led to an increase in forest fire emissions from Siberia,
and may also have directly suppressed land-carbon uptake. Model results lead us
to expect a steady increase in airborne fraction as climate change weakens the
natural carbon sink and accelerates CO2 rise.
Author: Chris Jones, Peter Cox, Peter Simmonds, Alistair Manning (chris dot d dot jones at metoffice dot gov dot uk)
Filesize: 150.29 Kb