In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon
cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to
year 2300 that would occur if CO2 emissions from all the currently
estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300,
the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO2 reaches
1423 ppmv. In our simulation, the prescribed cumulative emission since
pre-industrial period is about 5400 Gt-C by the end of 23rd century.
At year 2300, nearly 45% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In
our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout
the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong
carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe
long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is
ultimately released to the atmosphere.
Author: G. Bala, K. Caldeira, A. Mirin, M. Wickett, and C. Delire (bala1 at llnl dot gov)
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