Coral
reefs are constructed of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). Deposition of
CaCO3 (calcification) by corals and other reef organisms is
controlled by the saturation state of CaCO3 in seawater (Ω) and sea
surface temperature (SST). Previous studies have neglected the effects of ocean
warming in predicting future coral reef calcification rates. In this study we take into account both these
effects by combining empirical relationships between coral calcification rate
and Ω and SST with output from a climate model to predict changes in coral reef
calcification rates. Our analysis suggests
that annual average coral reef calcification rate will increase with future
ocean warming and eventually exceed pre-industrial rates by about 35% by 2100.
There is evidence however to suggest that different corals display different
sensitivities to changes in Ωarag and SST [Reynaud et al., 2003]. Considering that both these environmental
parameters are likely to change considerably in the future, additional
experiments on a variety of differing coral species will be crucial to obtain a
better understanding of future coral reef stability.
Author: B. I. McNeil, R. J. Matear and D. J. Barnes
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