In a Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) one
infers the values of the parameters controlling the function of a process model
using various observations. One can then calculate quantities of interest from
the optimized parameters and the model. One can also calculate the
uncertainties on the parameters and propagate these to uncertainties of the
calculated quantities. In Rayner et al. [2005] we assimilated atmospheric
observations over two decades, into a terrestrial model and calculated fluxes
over this period. Here we extend this work by calculating the response of the calibrated
terrestrial biosphere to a GCM simulation of future climate. Using this
combination we are able to comment on the fate of terrestrial carbon pools and
fluxes under climate change, calculate the uncertainties of the response, and
determine which parameters in the model are responsible for this uncertainty.
We include an extra parameter that scales the climate change signal from the
GCM projection. We thus extend the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to
include the climate sensitivity.
Author: P. Rayner, M. Scholze, P. Friedlingstein, et al
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