GML Seminars

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Upcoming Seminars

Title:

Permafrost carbon emissions and their climate and economic impacts
Speaker: Dr. Christina Schaedel
Christina Schädel is a Senior Research Scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, where she studies permafrost carbon dynamics and their role in the global carbon cycle. Her work focuses on quantifying permafrost carbon emissions and improving how these processes are represented in Earth system models. From 2011 to 2022 she coordinated the Permafrost Carbon Network, growing an interdisciplinary community of researchers and producing widely used data products, publications, and workshops. Her current research bridges experimental data and modeling, working toward full accounting of land-based greenhouse gas emissions from forests, permafrost, and agriculture to improve carbon budget calculations.
Date/Time: Thursday, September 10, 2026 01:00 PM MDT (-0600) Google Calendar IconOffice Calendar IconApple Calendar Icon
Location: David Skaggs Research Center, Room GC402 Google Meet
Abstract
Rapid Arctic warming is thawing permafrost, releasing greenhouse gases to the atmosphere that not only accelerate climate change but also increase global economic risks. Despite the importance of this feedback, global climate models only account for gradual thaw and do not capture abrupt thaw processes or wildfire-soil interactions that rapidly expose and combust frozen carbon. Here, we use an expanded version of the compact Earth system model OSCAR to estimate how gradual thaw, abrupt thaw, and fire-related permafrost emissions affect remaining carbon budgets, climate change, sea level rise, and economic damages under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that accounting for all processes reduces the remaining allowable carbon budget consistent with the Paris Agreement, by about 25% for limiting warming to 1.5°C and 17% for 2.0°C. Permafrost thaw also increases the likelihood of severe end-of-century climate and economic impacts. Some of the largest projected economic damages occur in tropical and subtropical regions that contain little or no permafrost themselves. Our results show that accounting for permafrost and wildfire emissions is critical for realistic climate targets, carbon budgets, and climate risk assessments.

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