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 An Empirical Estimate of the Southern Ocean Air-Sea CO2 Flux

The Fate of Fossil-Fuel Emissionsby Ben McNeil

A discrepancy exists between current estimates of the Southern Ocean air-sea flux of CO2. The most recent estimate using a combination of direct and climatologically-derived pCO2 measurements [Takahashi et al., 2002] (herein referred to as T02) suggests a Southern Ocean CO2 sink that is nearly two times greater that that suggested from general circulation models, atmospheric inverse models [Gurney et al., 2002] and oceanic inverse models [Gloor et al., 2003]. Here we employ an independent method to estimate the Southern ocean air-sea flux of CO2. Our method exploits all available surface measurements for Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (ALK) from 1986 to 1996. We show that surface age-normalized DIC can be predicted to within ~8mmol/kg and ~10mmol/kg for ALK using standard hydrographic properties, independent of season. The predictive equations are used in conjunction with World Ocean Atlas (2001) climatologies to estimate an annual cycle of DIC and ALK, while the pCO2 distribution is calculated using standard carbonate chemistry. For consistency we use the same gas transfer relationship and wind product from Takahashi et al, [2002] however, we include the effects of sea-ice. We estimate a Southern Ocean CO2 sink (>40°S) of -0.19±0.26 Pg C for 1995. Our estimates are smaller than those estimated by Takahashi et al, [2002], but consistent with atmospheric / oceanic inverse methods, general circulation models and provides further evidence that the Southern Ocean CO2 sink in relation to its oceanic surface area, is moderate on a global scale.

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Re: An Empirical Estimate of the Southern Ocean Air-Sea CO2 Flux (Score 1)
by Philippe.Ciais on Tuesday, September 27 @ 10:38:36 MDT
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Maybe I missed this in the talk, but, is there any trend in the southern ocean uptake that can be inferred from the pCO2 observations ?



Re: An Empirical Estimate of the Southern Ocean Air-Sea CO2 Flux (Score 2, Informative)
by Frank.Millero on Tuesday, September 27 @ 10:52:34 MDT
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The carbonate constants you selected are not the best to study the CO2 system in the ocean. Laboratory and field measurements have shown that the constants for real seawater by Mehrbach et al are more reliable than the measurements made in artificial seawater. The differences in pK2 between real and artificial seawater is 0.04 which causes an error of about 26 ppm.More important the errors  of 8 to 9 uM in TCO2 and TA will lead to very large errors in the calculated pCO2.  The can lead to an error of 32 ppm when TA=2400 and TCO2=2200 uM.



New theory (Score 1, Funny)
by guest on Tuesday, September 27 @ 15:10:38 MDT
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Perhaps the following theory should be considered as a possible explanation: http://www.seanbonner.com/blog/archives/001857.php






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September 25th - 30th
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