ON THE NATURE AND CAUSES OF YEAR-TO-YEAR VARIABILITY IN THE CARBON CYCLE
Description:
Monthly time series of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2),
the relative amount of carbon-13 in CO2 (13C), hydrogen
(H2) carbon monoxide (CO), and methane (CH4) are examined
and related to each other and to an index of the status of ENSO. Making use of simple 12-month running mean
and difference filters isolates the year-to-year variability in the concentrations
and apparent sources of these constituents.
Author's Names: J.L. Russell and J.M. Wallace
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DOES THE POSITION OF THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WESTERLY WINDS REPRESENT A NEGATIVE FEEDBACK ON ...
Description:
Increasing ocean stratification associated with global
warming has been posited to serve as a positive feedback on global warming,
reducing the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. We suggest that a
poleward shift of westerly winds combined with future increases in atmospheric
carbon dioxide may drive an increase in the CO2 uptake in the
Southern Ocean, representing a negative feedback on atmospheric anthropogenic
CO2.
Author's Names: J.L. Russell, K. Dixon, A. Gnanadesikan, et al
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MECHANISMS IMPACTING INTER-ANNUAL VARIATIONS IN REGIONAL C18OO ISOFLUXES: MODEL ESTIMATES WITH ...
Description:
Temporal
and spatial distributions of the δ18O value of atmospheric CO2
(dCa) can be used to constrain regional
ecosystem carbon exchanges and linkages between carbon and water cycling.
However, our understanding of the substantial observed temporal and spatial
variability in dCa is limited. Among many contributing
factors, seasonal and inter-annual variations in climate are likely to be
important. In this study we investigate the impact of dry climatic conditions
on the ecosystem-atmosphere C18OO isoflux.
We conducted this study in the
U.S. Southern Great Plains using five-year monthly-averaged precipitation δ18O
values (δp) from the
National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) network, Mesonet meteorological
forcing, and MODIS-derived NDVI and land-cover characterization. These data are
used to force the isotope ecosystem model ISOLSM [Riley et al., 2002; Riley et al., 2003] at 10 km resolution across the region for relatively
drier (2003) and wetter (2004) years. The model has been calibrated and tested
in the dominant herbaceous vegetation types in the region [Biraud et
al., this issue].
Author's Names: W.J. Riley, C.J. Still, R. Vachon, J. Welker, et al
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FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THE TERRESTRIAL CARBON CYCLE CONSTRAINED BY CURRENT OBSERVATIONS: RESULTS ...
Description:
In a Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) one
infers the values of the parameters controlling the function of a process model
using various observations. One can then calculate quantities of interest from
the optimized parameters and the model. One can also calculate the
uncertainties on the parameters and propagate these to uncertainties of the
calculated quantities. In Rayner et al. [2005] we assimilated atmospheric
observations over two decades, into a terrestrial model and calculated fluxes
over this period. Here we extend this work by calculating the response of the calibrated
terrestrial biosphere to a GCM simulation of future climate. Using this
combination we are able to comment on the fate of terrestrial carbon pools and
fluxes under climate change, calculate the uncertainties of the response, and
determine which parameters in the model are responsible for this uncertainty.
We include an extra parameter that scales the climate change signal from the
GCM projection. We thus extend the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to
include the climate sensitivity.
Author's Names: P. Rayner, M. Scholze, P. Friedlingstein, et al
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MODELING DROUGHT TOLERANCE IN AMAZONIA WITH SiB3
Description:
The
Amazon region of South America plays a
significant role in global cycles of water, energy and carbon, yet it
is also
one of the most challenging biogeographical areas of the world to model
correctly. Numerous global climate models have problems with anomalous
die-back
of the Amazon rain forest variously attributed to inadequate
representation of
rainfall, faulty soil moisture dynamics or an inability to correctly
simulate
the drought tolerance of the vegetation. Such misrepresentation of the
Amazon
in global climate models can cause larger than observed excursions of
the
global carbon cycle. This poster explores soil moisture and drought
stress for Amazonia with the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB3) and
possible reasons and solutions to the rain-forest die back problem,
which
should lead to more reasonable estimates of carbon fluxes at the
ecosystem
scale.
Author's Names: L. Prihodko, A.S. Denning, and I. Baker
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TOWARDS A NEW UNDERSTANDING OF RECENT CARBON CYCLE VARIABILITY COMBINING ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION, ...
Description:
We present a comprehensive
analysis of the recent inter-annual variation of the atmospheric CO2
growth rate, with a special focus on the 2002-2003 period, using a state of the
art atmospheric inversion, process driven model simulations (land and ocean),
and recent biomass burning estimates. The inverse estimates compare favourably well
with the model simulations over North Asia and
indicate a large contribution of the fire anomaly to the total anomaly, for
that region in 2003. Over Europe, the spatial distribution of the inverse and
bottom-up flux anomalies for 2003 have similarities but the time evolution of
the total fluxes still need to be reconciled.
Author's Names: P. Peylin, N. Viovy, C. Carouge, et al
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CARBON, WATER AND LAND USE IN THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS: MANAGEMENT IMPACTS ON LOCAL AND REGIONAL ...
Description:
This
research investigates how land use in the shortgrass steppe of eastern
Colorado impacts short
and long-term water, carbon and energy dynamics. A large and
homogeneous area of Conservation
Reserve Program (CRP) grassland near Briggsdale, Colorado, was selected
for this
experiment and divided into three 40 hectare plots. An open-path eddy
flux
system was established in each plot and measurements made during a
baseline
comparison prior to land use transformation.
The three treatments include an un-grazed grassland (control), a
moderate intensity grazing treatment, and a dry-land agricultural
rotation
(winter wheat-hay millet; considered optimal for this low rainfall area
of Colorado). We report on the trajectories of carbon,
water and energy fluxes in theses three land use systems and analyze
how
altered carbon storage and water use efficiency may impact short-term
land
surface-atmosphere interactions, as well as long-term source-sink
relationships, water conservation, productivity and sustainability.
Author's Names: N.P. Hanan, T.C. Peterson, and C.A. Williams
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SUBCONTINENTAL SCALE SOURCE SINK INVERSION OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN ...
Description: A
Time Dependent Inverse (TDI) model is used to estimate CO2 fluxes
for 64 regions of the globe from atmospheric data in the period January
1988–December 2001. These estimated are then used for understanding interannual
variability in fluxes and simulating the CO2 concentrations at
various sites. The NIES/FRCGC transport model driven by interannually varying
meteorology is used in both part of the analysis. Estimated atmospheric CO2
concentrations agree closely with those observed at various sites globally.
Author's Names: P.K. Patra, T. Nakazawa, S. Maksyutov, and T. Takahashi
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THE INFLUENCE OF THE NAO ON THE CONTINENTAL SHELF PUMP ON THE NORTHWEST-EUROPEAN SHELF
Description:
Using a coupled 3D
hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model system for the Northwest-European shelf we
simulated the years 1993-96, which exhibit an extremely strong transition from
a NAOI-high to a NAOI-low regime. The induced temperature-shift had two
consequences for the carbon budget of the North Sea:
Firstly it increased the CO2 solubility and secondly it destabilized
the water column in spring 1996. The latter effect was the precondition for
mixing events which brought new nitrogen for primary production into the upper
layer. Consequently the air-sea flux was 540 Gmol C a-1 in 1996, the
NAOI-low year, and it was 203 Gmol C a-1 in 1995, the year with the
highest NAOI.
Author's Names: J. Paetsch, W. Kuehn, A.V. Borges, Y. Bozec, et al
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THE AMAZON AND THE MODERN CARBON CYCLE
Description:
Is
the massive Amazon forest a CO2 sink, a source or is it in
equilibrium?
There
is a large uncertainty in carbon fluxes estimates for the tropics as a whole
and in particular for the Amazon region in South America,
bringing the attention to the lack of information to call the region a carbon
source or sink. The production of scientific consistent and long term data
series for the region is a process that has to advance step by step.
Author's Names: J.P.H.B. Ometto, A. D. Nobre, H. R. Rocha, P. Artaxo, et al
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